The options are bitter pills
After the recent debacle of leadership displayed in the Oval Office and the mineral deal that was supposed to open a pathway towards ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine still unsigned, the war looks like more of the same from a distance. If you are a soldier at the front, or a Ukrainian civilian dodging Russian missiles, sadly there will also be more of the same. But how much longer can more of the same go on?
As winter subsides, Russia will continue its grinding attacks for full control of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts they’ve been fighting over for the past 11 years. Ukraine will continue to put up a gallant defense.
A military conclusion requires one of the two sides to make a bold maneuver, tricky when technology makes every move visible to the enemy. The Kursk offensive of August 2024 was very bold but only netted 500 square miles of Russian territory and has shrunk since then. Unless Ukraine launches a World War II-esque double pincer offensive that cuts off and surrounds a Russian army of 50,000, and I don’t see them achieving that, then this war will have done all it can militarily. The diplomats will need to step in and they’ll be holding bowls full of bitter pills.
There are a number of factors that representatives from both sides can use to hammer out an agreement and force a ceasefire: Ukraine losing American aid and intelligence sharing; economic collapse in Russia, or a growing lack of able manpower to throw into the meat-grinder. Sometime in 2025–2027 this war will finally get its ceasefire agreement. You read that right. 2027. We’ll be left with something akin to North and South Korea in 1953 along the 38th parallel. There has never been a peace treaty ending the Korean War and there won’t be one ending this war. No Versailles. No Congress of Vienna. No ticker tape parades celebrating victory. Rather this will be Panmunjom and a well worn out table from angry negotiators constantly leaving and sitting back down. Korea took roughly two years to reach an agreement. This conflict will be similar. I don’t foresee any kind of treaty between these two countries, whose differences are irreconcilable. Not to sound so pessimistic, hopefully the Russians and Ukrainians can agree to a DMZ.
What other agreements can lock in a ceasefire and lasting peace? It will start with Ukraine agreeing to pull out of Kursk (if Russia hasn't taken all of it back by then). Russia in return will make some sort of concession whether it be monetary reparations or equivalent territory they currently hold, like the areas near Kharkiv. The ceasefire agreement will also entail Russia and Ukraine agreeing to complete and full prisoner exchanges and returning Ukrainian civilians.
Next, NATO is a non-starter. Russia won’t accept Ukraine in NATO and will make that part of the ceasefire deal on the front end. No talks will happen unless Ukraine agrees to it. However they’ll be NATO-adjacent. They will join the EU (they are currently in candidate status) and Europe will send a military force into Ukraine to manage the ceasefire and hopefully ensure a prevention of further hostilities. Before the full scale invasion by Russia in 2022 (yes to be clear Ukraine was invaded by Russia!) and the grey-zone conflict was relegated to the Donbass region, there was a constant stream of broken ceasefires. This armistice needs some teeth behind it. You’ll hear the phrase “armed peace” a lot during negotiations. Putin will scream bloody murder at this action and threaten all out nuclear war. Across the pond Trump, Musk and Vance will amplify Putin’s threats and try to convince everyone World War III is nigh. Europe needs to hold firm and call Putin’s bluff. That’s all it will be — a bluff. So a western military force will enter Ukraine and inherit Ukrainian security. It will be something not unlike the force the US has had in South Korea since the 50’s to maintain that ceasefire, although in larger numbers. The United States will not be part of this force, but with that mineral deal in place, it might supply a “backdrop” of air defense and intelligence sharing. Maybe post-Trump, but as of now, no US boots on the ground in the steppe.
This European presence spread along the armistice line will have to extend into the ocean. With hardly a navy to speak of, Ukraine brilliantly chased the Russian navy off to the other side of the Black Sea with drones and missiles. Russia has not taken this many losses since Tsushima and evacuated the Black Sea port of Sevastopol. With a ceasefire the Russian navy will build back. Therefore a European naval force will have to aid Ukraine in the western Black Sea and protect a tight corridor of shipping lanes for Ukraine’s exports/imports. Ukraine will also have to develop its own naval capabilities. There will be a significant air presence from Europe and, over time, an iron dome will be developed similar to what Israel has however it will have to cover a vastly larger area.
The return of Crimea to Ukraine will be a topic of discussion during ceasefire talks and it will go something like this:
Ukraine: We want Crimea back.
Russia: You can’t have it.
Ukraine: But it was originally part of our sovereign national borders.
Russia: You mean a return to 1991 borders? Not happening.
Ukraine: Then the war is back on.
Russia: Fine.
Ukraine: You really want to resume hostilities over Crimea?
Russia: You really want to try and take it from us? You don’t have the manpower.
The two sides stare vacantly at each other across the table.
Ukraine: Ok, moving on.
The return of Crimea or any return to 1991 borders is fantasy. I despise the fact Crimea remains Russian, but the only way to make it not Russian is by overwhelming force and a large amount of killing. One method of making the coming negotiations successful will be to operate in reality.
The ceasefire agreement will not see any war crimes trials for the Russians responsible for Bucha or thousands of other atrocities. There might be some low level officer found guilty but nobody near the Kremlin. There are currently 130,000 registered war crimes committed by the Russians, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Even the US State Department has chronicled human rights violations, disappearances and summary executions by Russians against Ukrainian civilians.
However, the coming armistice and any concessions Ukraine makes should not be viewed as a loss. Ukraine was supposed to be overrun in three days and incorporated into Russia. The Ukrainian military, backed by Europe and the United States, successfully defended their country. The three day invasion turned into three years. Russia’s strategic goals have been thwarted, and it isn’t in full control of the Donetsk region which they have been fighting over since February 2014. That counts as a win. I think that fact also lends itself to the position that, after 11 years, it’s time to call it a day. The war stoppage requires a shift in attitudes that through fire and blood they have carved new borders between their nations.
Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov recently stated they will not accept an armistice along the current front lines. It’s a bitter pill but there is a new border now.
Take those bitter pills, chase them with your best vodka and move on. Russia holds the great majority of Luhansk, large parts of southern Ukraine and all of Crimea. Ukraine will have to accept that. Russia still does not control major cities in Donetsk like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Take two more bitter pills and call me in the morning. It’s the only way to achieve peace.
