A major win, but not a turning point.
It’s been a hell of a good week for the Ukrainian army which, according to Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, now occupies about 1,000 sq km of Russia in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions. No less crucial, but not getting much press, is that Moscow’s famed Black Sea fleet has more or less retreated from the fight. Vladimir Putin has quietly ignored the latter, but the invasion of Mother Russia – the first in 80 years – has got the Kremlin spooked.
Putin has dismissed the maneuver as Ukraine making a grab for a bargaining chip in negotiations, which he won’t attend – raising the question why does he keep talking about it? Still, after “evacuating” some 130,000-180,000 people from the region (the reports on the ground is that people are running for dear life, and that Moscow hasn’t got much to do with it) the Kremlin is pulling troops out of Ukraine to deal with the crisis.
Volodymyr Zelensky is ignoring the bargaining chip question for now. His justification for the invasion is simply to stop Russia from launching operations from across the border. This is reasonable enough, Belgorod is a major hub for the military and a launch pad for strikes and troops. Kursk, though, might just be more embarrassing for Moscow: the first Battle of Kursk was largest battle in the history of warfare, where the Soviets threw millions of men to stop the Nazis in World War II. It is a battle of mythic proportion in Russia, and one of those things that is burned in to the psyche of school children. Given Putin’s love of rambling but not terribly accurate Russian history, this is a massive embarrassment.
The danger for Ukraine is over extension (defending and suppling the occupied territory) and air cover. Drone attacks have knocked out only about 20% of the Russian air defenses, so glide bombs are still and issue for Ukraine’s troops. The US-built F16s are in-country, but flying one is a little more complicated that learning to drive a stick-shift. As a stop-gap in training, Kyiv is hiring retired Air Force pilots to fly the planes for air cover.
The advance also puts the Ukraine in striking distance of a Russian nuclear power plant, giving Kyiv the same leverage that Russia enjoys over the Zaporizhia power plant in Ukraine – which the Russians lit on fire earlier this week. It is also in the neighborhood of a major terminal transporting natural gas to European markets. It’s unlikely Ukraine will do much with either, certainly as both sides are making much needed foreign currency trades on the terminal. So... good job capitalism.
This is probably not a turning point in the war, but it is causing Moscow to reshuffle in plan for a grinding war of attrition, and should reinvigorate Kyiv’s allies. And that second order affect just might bring about a turning point. Mind, there won’t be much warning if and when the war does turn – Russia has a funny habit of simply collapsing when it throws in the towel.
Comments