The network is shakey
Most of the Jews don’t want the war, and neither do the put-upon Palestinians. Even the PLA in West Bank is criticizing Hamas for sheltering among civilians. So, the only way that the war in Gaza is going to end is by removal of the men who seem determined to keep in going.
On the Israeli side that means Benjamin Netanyahu – who knows his career will outlast the conflict by about a week. On the Hamas side that’s either Yahya Sinwar – the top Hamas chief in Gaza – or Muhammed Deif – the head of its Hamas armed wing. It’s worth noting that the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for all three.
Israeli intelligence received human intel (probably a Palestinian) that Deif, who has been on Israel’s most-wanted list since the 1990s, was visiting the villa of a friend, Rafa Salemeh, a local brigade commander, which the IDF had been watching for weeks. He arrived on Friday and the next morning the IDF struck. It took eight tons of bombs falling on a walled villa next to a designated humanitarian safe area, but the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) just may have killed Deif. With only two know photographs of the man, its hard to tell.
Israel claims to have hit its target; it needs to justify the strike next to a humanitarian safe zone. For its part, Hamas is hedging: It’s the most high-profile loss yet, as well as confirmation that Hamas is in fact hiding among non-combatant civilians. If true, this complicates things for Hamas Gaza chief Sinwar, as Deif was the main contact between the Gaza operations and the political leadership hunkered down in Qatar.
Politically both Sinwar and Deif were dragging their feet about any cease-fire or hostage exchange. Hamas is not a hierarchy, it is a networked organization, made up of nodes and edges (lines/connections). Snuffing out a large node, and the IDF has snuffed out a few big ones since October, will not necessarily cause the network structure to collapse.
Counter-intuitively, it’s more effective to eliminate major connections rather than major nodes. The IDF may have achieved that in the bargain: Sinwar’s main connection to Hamas network outside of Gaza gone, the big node is very isolated.
To reestablish contact, Sinwar will have to come out of hiding – which is tricky given that it was a Palestinian who tipped off the Israelis about Deif. Which could – God/Allah/Jehovah willing – set Hamas on the road to a deal. Evidently the locals don’t like being used as human shields.
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