A long tortured Syrian population certainly hopes so.
In Syria the bloody and murderous Assad regime in Damascus, backed by other bloody and murderous regimes in Moscow and Tehran, has fallen. An alliance of different rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (who some analysts consider Al Qeada/ISIS adjacent) have taken advantage of Russia’s waning support due to it’s own problems in the Don, to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad and take nominal control of Syria. Syrians are joyously romping through their cities waving flags and giving two finger “V for victory” salutes in the air. It seems as if for once something good is coming from the Middle East. But is it?
Is there any good news to come out of the Middle East (aka Near East, aka Southwest Asia, aka seething cauldron of violent political and religious animosity)? In the aftermath of Assad’s fall, the populace is enjoying a degree of freedom never once imaginable and it appears the millions of refugees flung across the Mediterranean might find a safe haven to return home. Although what are they returning to?
On the surface Assad being gone is great news. The collective position of Putin and the Ayatollah are severely weakened and their game of making Syria a playground for proxy war virtually ended overnight. So this is a streak of good news but the story never ends in this region. The case is never fully closed and there are always fun surprises like this very swift toppling of Assad and the taking of Damascus. Plenty of Monday morning quarterbacks say they saw this coming but come on. It happened so fast writers and prognosticators were scrambling to get their pieces published on events that changed by the minute on the ground in Syria. But what is the next effect of these events? What’s the rebellion going to trigger? It immediately caused a swarm of American warplanes to rain hellfire on ISIS positions throughout Syria to ensure they stayed put. This attack was just in case they got any notion they can retrieve power again. After all, the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) rebel group that just took the capital are practically in the same ideological neighborhood to ISIS but their leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, has refined the group’s methods away from shameless massacring of civilians and minorities. There has not been any harsh crackdowns in areas they control, however there are scattered reports of reprisals against the minority Alawite sect that backed Assad’s power. There have also been reports of anti-Christian actions by certain rebels once they took over Aleppo.
The main question moving forward is are we just replacing one brutal dictator for another? When an autocrat falls in this region it almost never leads to a pretty oasis of freedom. The 2011 Arab Spring in Libya meant more factionalism and civil war. In Egypt it meant free elections resulting in the Muslim Brotherhood (basically the grandfathers of Al Qaeda) taking power, triggering a counter revolt and a return to autocracy only under a different name. In Iraq the takedown of Saddam meant a three way civil war and practically becoming an Iranian client state following the US withdrawal. Speaking of Iran they discarded their autocratic ruler the Shah in ‘79, for the Ayatollah who brought an equal brand of brutality, just in the name of Allah, not for the sake of royalty. So what should we expect from Syria?
History has taught us, more of the same. The rebels who ousted Assad are not one single cohesive force, rather disparate groups, ranging from secular to highly religious and terroristic, united in common cause against the regime. Now that that common cause is gone, can this confederation hold together? It is led by the majority group, HTS, which broke away from ISIS a number of years ago, displaying some sense of self awareness. One of the reasons HTS has been successful is its clamping down on fanaticism and putting on a moderate face. Whether or not Syria can achieve unity and peace is whether that moderate tendency is a true reality underneath the mask.
At some point during this ceaseless civil war, HTS leaders realized terrorist groups may have a peak of good runs but in the end will be completely vaporized in western munitions gunsights. Hopefully this rare cognizance extends to a wise oversight of nation building without going down the path of fellow Arabs in Libya or Iraq. They’ve already experienced 13 years of relentless civil war. Let’s give peace a try.
So what needs to happen now? The following is not a prediction. Trying to predict events in this part of the world is a fool’s errand, but rather a wish list of what needs to happen in order for peace and good governance to prevail in the Levant.
Food security. Syrians can’t consider nation building until they stop worrying about filling their children’s bellies. The International Rescue Committee has Syria rated as number four in the world as far as food insecurity. This will come from regional and international aid until they can get their food production, delivery logistics, and markets back up to standard.
Form a provisional government representing all with constitutional intentions. The unity driving the rebel forces to make a concerted effort on Damascus needs to continue to hold. There needs to be a leadership conference involving all groups and that includes the Alawite sect who formerly backed Assad. These leaders need to leave their AK 47s at the door and start talking about a constitution.
The Kurds need to be allowed back into the fold. The idea of a totally autonomous, economically viable “Rojave” Kurdistan with Turkey, and their immense military, calmly standing by remains the realm of fantasy. They need to be allowed to have their own state in a federal system, participating in the government in Damascus side by side with Arabs. If the Kurds peacefully relinquish their hold on territory then Turkey may relinquish their influence on an armed faction of Syrian rebels who currently control parts of northern Syria as a counter weight to the Kurds. This force propped up by, and answerable to, Turkey will only serve to undermine the Syrian government and the state as a whole. Kurds in, Turks out. There are reports the Kurds are talking to the rebel leadership in Damascus. Talking, not shooting, is a good start.
Syria must resist outside influence and disruptions. This means you Russia. HTS leadership is already talking to Moscow, which intends to maintain their naval and air force bases on the coast. This may have to be grandfathered into the new situation in Syria but leave it at that and don’t let any Putin cronies near the coming constitutional convention. The forming of a new Syrian society needs to be Kremlin free! Easier said than done since the Russians have basically made foreign meddling an art form of the highest order.
Next is Iran, who will still try to exert influence through the Shia Alawite minorities who formerly propped up Assad. Those influences need to be rooted out. This doesn’t have to mean throwing them into dungeons to hang from meat hooks, just enforcing existing laws against foreign agents undermining the national government. This also means disallowing Iranian-backed remnants of Hezbollah, Hamas and any other anti-Israel military organization from setting up a secure shop anywhere in Syria. Their fate needs to meet one of two ends; either destruction or expulsion. This leads directly to the next issue.
Israel has already extended its occupation of the Golan Heights into southwest Syria – Israeli tanks are less than 20 miles from Damascus. Israel has already bombed targets in and around the capital. This only serves to exacerbate anger and resentment (as if there can be anymore), fueling more war in the region. Root out any reason that Israel thinks they should bomb Syria and thus root out Israeli interference. What can’t happen is Israeli attacks, backed by the US, laying waste to parts of Syria the way they did to Gaza and Beirut. That’s the worst case and will open up so many new gates of hell. So some form of cease fire or negotiated peace needs to take place and it will most likely mean Syria recognizing Israel’s hold on the Golan Heights. There is no way Israel gives up this strategic area. In addition it surrounds a prominent source of water, the Sea of Galilee. The Star of David is not giving this up, so let’s operate in reality, not fantasy. Israel will have to make its own security guarantees, such as a demilitarized buffer zone, and that remains to be seen. Either way if Israeli warplanes and missiles continue to strike Syria nothing will ever get resolved and the Middle East will just keep on Middle-Eastin’ for the next 500 years.
The United States bombing of Syria needs to stop, but not just yet. US support will be needed to eliminate ISIS, Al Qaeda, and other terrorist formations throughout the country. This isn’t an anti-war, anti-US military protest. It’s simply stating if Syria is to build a new country with a diverse economy free of the destabilizing chaos of conflict, this means the destruction of all terrorist organizations. Eliminate the need for the US to be there and eliminate the need for future attacks and remaining in a constant state of war. This will be a good way for the new leadership in Damascus to unite in strength and cohesion behind a new cause. They’ll have the US running air cover and special ops in support and they’ve proven they can move fast. The only sticky part is the new governing rebels will be killing some of their former friends, but these buddies need to be told either get on board with a new Syria or get out. Prove to DC there are no longer any terrorist outposts and the Pentagon will put a leash on the dogs of war.
If these state-stable security basics can be established then the way for foreign trade and capital can be opened and dare it be said, Syria could potentially be opened to foreign tourism to attract those dollars the way Egypt and UAE have. One can only hope, and hope is all the Syrians got in a part of the world that needs to prove that good things really can happen.