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4717 Insight Notes: Palantir's Big Short

7 November 2025

If you were wondering what, exactly, Palantir actually does: It makes SAAS products that organize data across systems and internal infrastructure for customers ranging from the CIA to Wendy’s for sharper decision making on things like telling that drone what to blow up, fraud detection and making a hamburger even cheaper. Which sounds promising with all the grousing about an AI bubble going weapons-grade when Michael Burry of The Big Short fame revealed he was shorting Palantir as too expensive. The company’s forward price-to-earnings is better than 4X that of Nvidia, which Burry is also shorting.

 

Shorting Nvidia at its price makes a certain sort of sense as the company is facing stiffening global competition and growing calls for “AI Sovereignty” – for governments to own the AI kit and models they use because they can’t trust anyone else’s.

 

While Palantir is expensive, and its share price will probably correct, it is a cash cow and its model will continue to grow as the world continues to deglobalize its tech and supply chains. As data formats and infrastructure become decoupled, they will develop their own standards and become mutually unintelligible – if you can remember the Reagan administration, think VHS v. Betamax. Which is a future made for Palantir’s business model whatever its share price does.

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Information and Meaning are not the same thing. Ignore that, and your audience will ignore you.

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A trillion dollar answer in search of a trillion dollar question.

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A comedian walks into a war... and other horrible jokes in Ukraine. 

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